Polymarket users won big with unusual bets on US attack on Iran
Financial Times • 2/28/2026 – 3/3/2026
Summary
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Cluster Activity
1
1
1
2
2026-02-282026-03-03
Lindy Score Breakdown (V4.2)
7h
Age
5
Sources
from cluster
3
Hours Since Seen
Final Score50/100
CategoryBreaking
StatusActive
Recency Multiplier96% (0.5^3/48)
Hero EligibleYes
Story Timeline
- 2026-02-28
- 2026-03-01
- 2026-03-02
- 2026-03-03Polymarket users won big with unusual bets on US attack on Iran (current)
Score BreakdownRisk 30
Source Reputation: Moderate trust (8/20 pts)
Consensus: Strong consensus: 5 independent sources
Age: Breaking news - too recent to assess longevity
Stories gain Lindy status through source reputation, network consensus, and time survival.
Same Story from 5 sources
Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket hit with backlash over Iran strike-related bets
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Prediction markets scrutinised over Iran bets
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Polymarket saw $529M traded on bets tied to bombing of Iran
TechCrunch • 1 day ago
Polymarket defends its decision to allow betting on war as ‘invaluable’
The Verge • 2 days ago
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