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China-Canada canola deal faces fragility test as USMCA trade talks loom, insiders warn

South China Morning Post2/6/2026

Summary

China has resumed Canadian canola purchases, a deal brokered during Prime Minister Mark Carney’s state visit to Beijing last month. However, industry insiders warn that the deal faces uncertainty due to upcoming North American trade talks, which could pose significant risks. There is currently “no public assurance” that canola imports will continue uninterrupted beyond the initial shipments.

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Lindy Score Breakdown (V4.2)

11d
Age
1
Sources
from cluster
259
Hours Since Seen
Final Score0/100
CategoryAntiLindy
StatusArchived
Recency Multiplier2% (0.5^259/48)
Hero EligibleNo
Score is 0 because recency decay (0.5^259/48 = 0.023752) reduced it below 0.5

Score BreakdownRisk 50

Source Reputation: Low-trust source (4/20 pts)
Consensus: Single source - no independent confirmation yet
Age: 10 days - proven survivor

Stories gain Lindy status through source reputation, network consensus, and time survival.

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