Europe Might Sit Out In An Indo-Pacific War — But It Can’t Escape the Fallout

In 2024, Paul van Hooft and Tim Sweijs wrote an article titled “Two-Theater Tragedy: A Reluctant Europe Cannot Easily Escape a Sino-American War Over Taiwan,” arguing that a war in the Indo-Pacific would likely draw in and weaken Europe, even if European states attempt to remain neutral. Two years later, amidst heightened tensions, Paul revisited these arguments.