Siena: Hochul has 10-point lead over Blakeman in first poll of likely voters

Politico8/12/2026

Summary

A Siena poll indicates that Governor Hochul has a 10-point lead over Blakeman among likely voters. This is the first poll of its kind reported by Politico.

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Lindy Score Breakdown (V4.2)

7h
Age
1
Sources
from cluster
2
Hours Since Seen
Final Score12/100
CategoryAntiLindy
StatusActive
Recency Multiplier97% (0.5^2/48)
Hero EligibleYes

Score BreakdownRisk 70

Source Reputation: Low-trust source (6/20 pts)
Consensus: Single source - no independent confirmation yet
Age: Breaking news - too recent to assess longevity

Stories gain Lindy status through source reputation, network consensus, and time survival.

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