More than half of all Polymarket "long shot" bets on military action pay off
Ars Technica • 4/30/2026
Summary
More than half of all Polymarket "long shot" bets on military action have paid off. The combination of sensitive information and prediction markets has proven to be successful.
Advertisement
Lindy Score Breakdown (V4.2)
5h
Age
1
Sources
from cluster
5
Hours Since Seen
Final Score12/100
CategoryAntiLindy
StatusActive
Recency Multiplier93% (0.5^5/48)
Hero EligibleYes
Score BreakdownRisk 70
Source Reputation: Low-trust source (6/20 pts)
Consensus: Single source - no independent confirmation yet
Age: Breaking news - too recent to assess longevity
Stories gain Lindy status through source reputation, network consensus, and time survival.
Breaking Similar stories
GM is still the #2 EV seller in the US, but for how long?
Electrek • 2 days ago
Subnautica 2 will be in early access May 14, at long last
Engadget • Today
Ted Lasso’s fourth season starts August 5
Engadget • 2 days ago
These Are The Best-Selling Cars So Far In 2026
Jalopnik • 1 day ago
Volkswagen will unveil the first EV from its entry-level lineup tomorrow: What to expect
Electrek • 2 days ago
How one venture firm is investing in an increasingly fragmented world
TechCrunch • 1 day ago
NVIDIA starts offering a 12GB version of the 5070 for laptops
Engadget • 2 days ago
The SCCA Booted The C4 Corvette From Racing Because It Made Things Boring
Jalopnik • 2 days ago
Now California’s cops can give tickets to driverless cars
The Verge • Today
SpaceX backer 137 Ventures raises $700M for two growth-stage funds
TechCrunch • Today
Anti-Lindy Similar stories
Soldier won $410K in Polymarket bets on timing of Maduro capture, US alleges
Ars Technica • 6 days ago
US arrests soldier who allegedly made $400K on Maduro Polymarket bets
The Verge • 1 week ago
US Special Forces Soldier Arrested for Polymarket Bets on Maduro Raid
Wired • 6 days ago
Google employees ask Sundar Pichai to say no to classified military AI use
The Verge • 3 days ago
US soldier arrested for allegedly making over $400,000 on Polymarket with classified Maduro information
Engadget • 6 days ago
Authorities arrest special forces soldier who allegedly made $400K on Polymarket bet involving Maduro operation
TechCrunch • 6 days ago
Watch BYD’s 5-min Flash Charging in action on the new Seal 07 EV [Video]
Electrek • 1+ months
Anthropic’s relationship with the Trump administration seems to be thawing
TechCrunch • 1 week ago
SpaceX has reportedly filed for the biggest IPO in history
Engadget • 4 weeks ago
Elon Musk and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman head to court in high-stakes showdown over AI
KIRO 7 News Seattle • 3 days ago