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The Signal and the Noise
by Nate Silver
"The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth."
Summary
Silver examines prediction across domains—baseball, elections, earthquakes, poker—and finds a common thread: the best forecasters combine domain expertise with probabilistic thinking and, crucially, humility about uncertainty.
Why This Fits LindyFact
Directly inspired our mission. LindyFact is a signal-to-noise filter for news. Key concept: Overconfidence is the enemy of accurate prediction.